Looking Ahead in 2009

When I hear fashion mavens saying it is acceptable to recycle last year's party dress for special occasions, it has become abundantly clear to me that extravagance is out for 2009.

For Howe Street brokers and west side realtors, that means $35 wines-by-the-glass are not on, nor is the $750 Napa cult wine for dinner.

But what will the impact be on the normal wine drinker who doesn't even dream of sipping class growth Bordeaux or grand cru Burgundy? Perhaps at the normal, everyday I-enjoy-a-glass-of wine-with-my -dinner, the shift will more subtle.

There will be plenty of time to look at specific wine trends for 2009, but today I wanted to look at which countries are in the best position to handle the discreet shift by consumers to the best deals in the wine business during the early months of 2009.

New Zealand seems a prime candidate given its wonky dollar; in fact the category could take off with a major price correction to reflect its currency. One Canadian dollar is worth about $1.42 New Zealand, but you would never know that by what's in our wine stores. There should be dozens of sauvignon blancs and pinot noirs selling well under $20, instead of the current meagre selection.

Compare that with the euro where one Canadian dollar is worth 58 cents across Europe. It's hard to imagine any European prices not going up. That means Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany and France are all in for a tough year of pricing in Canada. There may be room for price cuts among the signature wines, but the high quality, everyday picks under $20 are likely to see their shelf price rise.

At about 81 cents Canadian, the American dollar is doing no favours to California wine buyers, or Chile and Argentina for that matter, since the latter two more often than not are traded in U.S. dollars. Chile, and to some extent Argentina, deliver more for less but even they will be in for tough times if the loonie languishes for any length of time.

The South African Rand at just under eight to the dollar is far more attractive than the wines they send us. This category needs to be deconstructed and then reshaped for the modern wine buyer before it has any impact.

That leaves Australia where the loonie is worth $1.18 and the Okanagan where the dollar is mercifully one to one. The bloom is off Down Under wines, but some deep discounting in the $15-$30 range could help bolster the category's image problems by making the better wines more affordable. In the case of affordable Oz wines, they really need to get better in the glass.

British Columbia wineries will face a unique challenge in 2009. After 17 years of successive price increases, VQA wines (average price now just under $18 per bottle) producers may have to give something back to maintain their market share. It all depends on how hard the opposition decides to fight and whether locals are willing to maintain their B.C. habit while taking a financial pounding. Bet on no imported wine handing its hard-earned market share to B.C without a price fight.

Today we look at six wines, and no doubt others like them, that could end up shaping the year of wine in British Columbia.

The Raimat Chardonnay - Albariño 2005 from Costers del Segre, Spain, is a very smart, food-friendly blend that appeals with chardonnay and delivers with something extra from the Albariño grape. This is a stylish, crisp, juicy white with bits of ginger, green apple, nectarine skin and mineral flavours. Spain's only problem will be the euro.

Much like last year, the Cono Sur Gewurztraminer Limited Release 2007, made with fruit from cold Bio Bio, over delivers for its price. The flavours are fruit forward with ginger, orange, nectarine and grapefruit -- all with a splash of minerality. Perfect with Indian or Thai food. The price is a dream.

Given the dollar, the Villa Maria Riesling Private Bin 2006 should be going down in price this year, but it is worth drinking now. The fruit comes from two distinct regions in Marlborough: the higher plains of the Awatere Valley and the old river bed of the Wairau Valley. Look for great value in this fresh, crisp and moderately dry wine with its guava, light diesel and nectarine flavours.

Much has been written about the Fuzion Shiraz Malbec 2007, a huge success in Quebec and Ontario where it sells for about $7. It is mostly spicy Argentina shiraz that is clearly enhanced by its 20 per cent malbec content. The good news is its upfront creaminess or softness. Then comes the mid-palate acidity and spice you associate with cheaper Oz shiraz that heightens its dry, earthy finish. The perfect hamburger red no more, no less. We do love the $9 price tag.

Boekenhoutskloof The Wolftrap Syrah - Mourvèdre - Viognier 2007 continues to be a red wine force from South Africa. The entry is soft; the textures supple, the flavours a mix of smoked meat, lychee, peppery, prune plum fruit and licorice. Balanced in a somewhat rustic way.

Finally from the Okanagan Quails' Gate Chasselas - Pinot Blanc 2007. Amazingly fresh, and crisp with a tight juicy palate. Although primarily a summer-style sipper, you could enjoy this with a turkey, chicken or ham sandwich with some cranberry chutney. Affordable and local.

Costers del Segre, Catalunya, Spain

Price: $14

UPC: 08410013996948

Score: 87/100

Remarks: Highly underrated.

Cono Sur Gewurztraminer

Limited Release 2007, Bio-Bio Valley, Chile

Price: $11

UPC: 7804320753904

Score: 88/100

Remarks: Perfect with Indian or Thai food.

Quails' Gate Chasselas - Pinot Blanc 2007,

Okanagan Valley, British Columbia

Price: $16

UPC: 77856107050

Score: 86/100

Remarks: Enjoy this with turkey, chicken or ham sandwich with cranberry chutney.

Fuzion Shiraz Malbec 2007

Mendoza, Argentina

Price: $9

UPC: 07791728018134

Score: 85/100

Remarks: The perfect hamburger red; no more, no less.

Boekenhoutskloof

The Wolftrap Syrah - Mourvèdre - Viognier 2007, Western Cape, South Africa

Price: $15

UPC: 746925000564

Score: 87/100

Remarks: Good textures and balance, if a bit on the rustic side.

Villa Maria Riesling

Private Bin 2006, Marlborough, South Island, New Zealand

Price: $17

UPC: 9414416216077

Score: 88/100

Remarks: Round, fresh, crisp, moderately dry and elegant palate.