Australia 2012

Smaller but sweeter: high quality, low yields characterize the 2012 harvest

A phone survey by WGGA in early March 2012, following drenching rain and flooding on the eastern seaboard found that these conditions in the east starkly contrasted with high temperatures and very dry conditions at the same time in the west.

Nevertheless, at the meeting in the middle, ideal conditions continued to prevail. Despite the disheartening circumstances for the severely rain-affected growing regions in the east, the major themes of the 2012 harvest are largely consistent across the country. The first of the major themes of this year's harvest is generally lower than long-run yields, brought about by fewer bunches and less fruitfulness per bunch. This occurred after coolness in November 2011 which hampered the fruit set. In addition, 2012 represents an off-year after a heavy cropping 2011 (despite not all of last year's fruit being harvested due to disease impact). By contrast, yields will be slightly higher in Western Australia because of good spring rain and warmer development over the summer. The second major theme of the 2012 harvest is the generally ideal conditions for flavour and colour development. This has resulted from the mild weather conditions that created steady, ideal ripening in addition to concentration of colour and flavour in the smaller bunches and berries. Stand-out quality profiles will be available from the majority of the fruit that escapes the recent weather extremes.

At the time of the survey, harvest was about 70% finished. This was as a result of the larger part of the white harvest being complete, with perhaps 10-15% left to bring in, while around half the red harvest was in - being well underway in the more northern latitudes and commencing in the southern districts. At the southern extremity, Tasmania had only just started picking. For the second year in a row, whites are getting the best the season has to offer but regardless of the outcome of the recent eastern seaboard rain and flooding, 2012 is way ahead of the horror that 2011 presented.

The rains and flooding on the eastern seaboard resulted from monsoonal weather that swept across the nation from the north west to south east. In this event:

·         The districts in an arc from Murray Darling/Swan Hill down to north of the Yarra Valley (which missed the worst of it) and upwards in latitude received a drenching. In harm's way were the major districts of the Riverina, the Hunter and central NSW (Mudgee, Orange and Cowra)

·         The Riverland and Murray Darling/Swan Hill districts had a significant incidence of rain but not the punishing falls further east;

·         South Australia had some rain events but were blessed with clearing follow-up weather,

·         The Western Australian winegrowing districts were left unaffected. The regions that have experienced heavy rain are poised, waiting to see what happens next - hoping for clearing weather that will leave fruit to be picked depending on the ability to access the vineyards as well as any disease emergence. Tonnage estimates have become increasingly difficult to make over recent seasons due to a number of factors:

o   Comparisons with previous years are unreliable as a result of fruit left behind due to disease and/or lack of viable returns

o   The difficulty of translating into final tonnages, estimates based on seasonally affected counts of bunch numbers and estimates of bunch and berry size (where small errors in these estimates can translate to large tonnages across all vines).

o   The need to wait and see what the outcomes are from the extraordinary seasonal conditions around harvest time.

o   The poorer state of statistics on the industry's viticultural foundations (areas planted, removed, left uncropped).

While recognizing that this is not an ideal methodology for estimating tonnages (but the only one available) a poll of expected tonnages in the major growing districts suggests a harvest of 1.4 million tonnes could be around the mark, with potential upside possible but subject to outcomes in the follow-up conditions to the rain and flooding in the east.

The mild-to-cool start to the season brought about early reports of downy incidence but it was of low incidence and effectively dealt with by vineyard managers who were in a state of readiness after last year. Reports of botrytis have also been made, and while the incidence is only a shadow of last year, it remains a potential threat for the remaining crop as the eastern states emerge from the recent wetness. All in all, with disease contained and colour/flavour profiles high, quality isexpected to be exceptionally high from a smaller crop in 2012.

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Contacts:

Shelley Hamer-Jackson<mailto:shelley.hamer-jackson@wineaustralia.com>,

Communications Manager Canada, Cell: 604.537.7754

Geoff McFadzean<mailto:geoff.mcfadzean@wineaustralia.com>, Market Manager Canada,

Tel: 426.323.4294

Angela Slade<mailto:angela.slade@wineaustralia.com>, Regional Director North

America, Cell: 415.819.5131