The Next Year in Wine: 2026 Predictions

Between economic uncertainty, climate challenges, shifting consumer habits, and rising costs, many wineries have been focused less on growth and more on survival. That pressure has a way of clarifying things. What once felt like slow-moving trends are now becoming hard realities.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for 2026. They reflect what's already underway and what's likely to accelerate. And a few points that offer cautious optimism.

1. Industry consolidation and shrinking in BC
My first prediction is a continuation of what we've seen over the past year: industry consolidation and shrinking. Economic uncertainty has changed how people spend, and we've seen that clearly in reduced alcohol consumption. Add in the compounding impact of wildfires and extreme cold events, and there's arguably never been a more difficult time to own a winery in BC.

It's not an exaggeration to say that many BC wineries are looking to sell. The problem is that there are few buyers. Many wineries began as second careers or retirement projects. Those owners are now ready to step away, but without a next generation to step in. That leaves larger companies as the most likely buyers, particularly those looking to acquire another brand or vineyard land (more on that below).

The wineries best positioned to survive will be those willing to adapt rather than repeat what's worked before. I saw encouraging examples last year, like JoieFarm's Hot Dog Lounge on the Naramata Bench, which drew visitors looking for something casual. The Okanagan is seeing traffic, but people aren't spending as much as they were five years ago. The question now is how wineries adjust to this moment.

2. Wine will keep getting more expensive
This applies to both BC wine and imports. Inflation has increased costs across the supply chain, but the whole industry – not just wineries – is feeling this stress. I think it'll be increasingly difficult to find interesting wines under $20. That could quickly become $25.

I think you'll see consumers explore less familiar-to-them regions, hunting for value. Instead of Bordeaux or Burgundy, they may look to Portugal or Spain. These are regions with an established wine industry, lots of vineyards planted (and paid off by previous generations), but offer wines that've flown under the radar. There's still value to be found, but it means looking a bit harder. Going to specialty wine stores that work hard to sort the good from the bad will undoubtedly help.

For years, the wine industry has been saying quality over quantity. The economic reality may force people to do that more than ever.

3. Smaller formats
We're used to the standard 750mL bottle. This year, you'll continue to see more alternative, smaller formats as part of the adaptation to changing consumer patterns. That means smaller half bottles, more cans, and more boxed wines. I think the industry will (finally) meet consumers where they are: drinking less and drinking more mindfully. Instead of being left with a half bottle that may get poured down the sink, you'll see smaller servings that let customers have the equivalent of one glass.

4. Wine consumption will go up. Slightly.
I'm basing this on nothing but blind optimism. We've talked about a decrease in wine consumption. I think that flattens out this year. I've seen an attitude shift occurring where people who were drinking wine as just another alcoholic beverage have moved on to other options. I think this year, wine drinkers will gravitate to how wine adds to a get-together or a meal in a way that other drinks don't. Wine carries agriculture, tradition, culture, and history. Picking up a bottle from 2016 can make you think back to what you were doing that year. You don't have that with an RTD in hand.

Taylor Swift's recent tour prompted millions of people to reflect on who they were and what they were doing at various points in their lives. Wine hasn't quite hit its Eras Tour, but it's turning around. And it doesn't hurt that Taylor drinks Sancerre.